Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ12 KNHC 060848
PWSEP2

HURRICANE KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75   
KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                            

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

S CATALINA IS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

TIJUANA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)

IS GUADALUPE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  15(21)   3(24)
IS GUADALUPE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)

PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  40(42)  10(52)   X(52)
PUNTA EUGENIA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   6(16)   1(17)
PUNTA EUGENIA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  46(53)   3(56)   X(56)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   1(16)   X(16)
P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   4( 5)   7(12)   5(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   5(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)

LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)

P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)

BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)

GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)

HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 110W       34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

20N 110W       34 43  31(74)   1(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
20N 110W       50  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ISLA SOCORRO   34 88  12(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLA SOCORRO   50 17  76(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  3  68(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)

ISLA CLARION   34  2   6( 8)   6(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

20N 115W       34  1   7( 8)  22(30)   6(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  26(30)  51(81)   1(82)   X(82)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  38(42)   X(42)   X(42)
25N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   X(22)   X(22)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

30N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



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