Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Wind Speed Probabilities


032 
FOPZ12 KNHC 060248
PWSEP2

HURRICANE KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70   
KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                            

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

S CATALINA IS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

TIJUANA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)

IS GUADALUPE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   7(23)
IS GUADALUPE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)  21(45)   1(46)
PUNTA EUGENIA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   1(15)
PUNTA EUGENIA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  38(40)   8(48)   1(49)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)
P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   7(13)   5(18)   X(18)   X(18)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)

P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)

BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)

GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)

HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

15N 110W       34 20   3(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)

20N 110W       34  6  38(44)  13(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
20N 110W       50  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ISLA SOCORRO   34 20  76(96)   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  1  56(57)  20(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X  25(25)  20(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)

ISLA CLARION   34  1   5( 6)  13(19)   4(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)

15N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 115W       34  X   4( 4)  19(23)  19(42)   2(44)   X(44)   X(44)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  68(75)   4(79)   X(79)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  38(38)   2(40)   X(40)
25N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   2(19)   X(19)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)

30N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 



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