Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ12 KNHC 082053
PWSEP2

HURRICANE KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022               
2100 UTC THU SEP 08 2022                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65   
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                            

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

OXNARD CA      34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SANTA CRUZ IS  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

LONG BEACH/LA  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

S CATALINA IS  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SAN DIEGO CA   34  1   4( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

TIJUANA        34  1   5( 6)   6(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

ENSENADA       34  2  18(20)   8(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

IS GUADALUPE   34  4   5( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   1(12)

PUNTA EUGENIA  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PUNTA EUGENIA  50 82   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
PUNTA EUGENIA  64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

P ABREOJOS     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
P ABREOJOS     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

LORETO         34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

P PENASCO      34  7   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

BAHIA KINO     34 23   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

GUAYMAS        34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

25N 115W       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

30N 120W       34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    



Source link