Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ12 KNHC 080850
PWSEP2

HURRICANE KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022               
0900 UTC THU SEP 08 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75   
KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                            

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

OXNARD CA      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SANTA CRUZ IS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

LONG BEACH/LA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

S CATALINA IS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

TIJUANA        34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

ENSENADA       34  X   3( 3)  13(16)   6(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)

IS GUADALUPE   34  3   4( 7)   5(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)

PUNTA EUGENIA  34 50  45(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
PUNTA EUGENIA  50  1  48(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
PUNTA EUGENIA  64  X   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

P ABREOJOS     34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
P ABREOJOS     50 57   6(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
P ABREOJOS     64  9   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LA PAZ         34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

LORETO         34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

P PENASCO      34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

HERMOSILLO     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BAHIA KINO     34 15   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

GUAYMAS        34 11   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

25N 115W       34 87   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)

30N 120W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



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