Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Public Advisory


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BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
600 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022

...KAY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE EARLY THIS WEEK... 
...OUTER RAIN BANDS AND LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN 
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 107.8W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Puerto San Andresito

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area in Baja California should closely
monitor the progress of Kay as hurricane or tropical storm watches
could be required tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located 
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 107.8 West. Kay is moving toward 
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest motion is 
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a northwest to 
north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the 
center of Kay is expected to remain southwest and west of 
southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, then move to the west of the 
southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely 
near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the 
southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are 
likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California 
peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread northward and into 
the Gulf of California later this week. These swells will likely 
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, 
with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of 
the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night. 
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including 
landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

NNNN



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