Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Public Advisory


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 070537
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS 
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING LATER THIS 
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 111.8W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Santa Rosalia to Bahia De Los Angeles
* North of Punta Eugenia to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Tropical storm and hurricane warnings are likely to be required for 
portions of the watch area later this morning.  Interests north of 
the watch area on the Baja California peninsula and along the 
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should closely monitor the 
progress of Kay as additional tropical storm watches could be 
required this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 111.8 West. Kay is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected today, and this motion should continue 
into Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected 
to pass to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula 
today, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja California 
peninsula Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Kay
could become a major hurricane during that time.  Weakening is
forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area
beginning Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area beginning this morning and are forecast 
to spread northward tonight and Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions 
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Kay makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Kay is expected to produce rainfall totals of...

Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 
inches   
Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 
inches
Southernmost California: 1 to 3 inches with maxima of 5 inches 
through Saturday morning

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding across the above 
areas, including landslides across mountainous areas of Mexico. 

SURF:  Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja
California peninsula coast and into the Gulf of California during 
the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening 
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your 
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



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