Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 052100
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Satellite images indicate that banding features have become better
defined during the past several hours.  The low-level center is now
more embedded in the deep convection, and Kay has strengthened 
significantly.  An ASCAT pass from around 16Z showed peak winds in
the 50-55 kt range on the system's east side, and the 18Z Dvorak
estimates were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB.  The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Kay and the aircraft
recently reported a minimum pressure of 981 mb, which is notably
lower than previously estimated.  The aircraft also measured
maximum SFMR and flight-level winds to support increasing the
intensity to 70 kt.

The storm continues to move westward, but at a slightly slower pace
of around 10 kt. The model guidance remains in fairly good agreement
that a turn to the west-northwest is likely to begin tonight
followed by a northwestward motion by Tuesday night. Although this
should take the core of Kay well to the west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula, tropical storm conditions are
possible there by early Wednesday given its expansive wind field.
Kay will likely be very near the west-central portion of the
peninsula on Thursday and Friday, and hurricane watches could be
required for that region tonight or tomorrow.  After that time, a
turn to the west seems likely as Kay weakens and is steered by a
low- to mid-level ridge building over the southwestern United
States. The NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the
previous one in the short term, which is based on the initial motion
and position, but is otherwise largely unchanged.

Steady strengthening is expected to continue during the next couple
of days as Kay remains over warm SSTs and embedded in a moist air
mass.  In addition, the storm is forecast to move into a lower wind
shear environment in 36 to 48 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast is
near the high end of the model guidance. Beyond a couple of days, 
however, progressively cooler SSTs and a drier air mass should end 
the strengthening trend and induce steady weakening.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gusts to tropical-storm-force and rough surf along the coast of
southwestern Mexico are expected through Tuesday.  In addition,
heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides,
across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through
Wednesday night.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the southern
Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued.

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity 
forecasts remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant 
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the 
Baja California peninsula.  A tropical storm or hurricane watch
could be issued for that region tonight or Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 15.6N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 16.2N 108.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 17.5N 110.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 18.8N 112.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 20.5N 113.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 22.4N 113.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 24.5N 114.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 27.8N 116.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 29.6N 119.6W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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