Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 060848
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

The satellite presentation of Kay has improved within the past 
couple of hours.  A curved band with cloud top temperatures below 
-85C has wrapped around the center and has formed a ragged 
banding-type eye in infrared imagery.  The latest subjective and 
objective Dvorak satellite estimates are all around 65 kt, but with 
the earlier reconnaissance data supporting a higher intensity and 
the recent improvement in structure, the initial intensity has been 
raised to 75 kt.  Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft 
is scheduled to investigate Kay this afternoon. 

The much-anticipated northwestward turn appears to have occurred, 
and the initial motion estimate is now 310/11 kt.  Kay is forecast 
to move on a northwestward heading during the next 24 to 36 hours 
around a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico.  After that time, 
the hurricane is forecast to turn north-northwestward, bringing the 
core near the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula in 60-72 
hours.  Some of the dynamical track models including the HWRF, 
GFS and GFS ensemble mean, have made a noticeable eastward shift 
over the past few cycles, while the ECMWF has changed little. The 
updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly east of the 
previous advisory out of respect for the aforementioned models, but 
it is not quite as far east as the latest GFS, GFS ensemble mean or 
HFIP corrected consensus. The forecast is a blend of the ECMWF and 
GFS and is just east of the simple consensus aids.   

Kay's outflow remains somewhat constricted over the northeastern 
quadrant due to moderate northeasterly shear.  However, the shear 
is forecast to relax over the next 24 to 36 hours, and given the 
recent improvement in organization, additional strengthening is 
expected during that time.  The NHC forecast has been raised from 
the previous advisory and is near the upper-end of the guidance in 
best agreement with the SHIPS model.  After 36 hours, Kay will be 
moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and weakening 
should begin.  Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes 
its closest approach to the west-central coast of the Baja 
peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and strong hurricane at 
that time.  In addition, winds and rainfall impacts will extend far 
form the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast 
track.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for 
the southern portions of the Baja California peninsula.  Additional
tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings could be necessary
for portions of Baja California later today.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including 
landslides, across portions of western Mexico, including the Baja 
California peninsula, through Thursday night.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the 
southern Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning, 
where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. 

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind,
surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the Baja
California peninsula later this week.  A tropical storm or hurricane
watch could be issued for that region later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 17.0N 108.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 18.0N 110.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 19.4N 111.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 21.1N 113.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 23.1N 113.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 25.1N 114.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 26.8N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 29.6N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 30.3N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown



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