Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Forecast Discussion


566 
WTPZ42 KNHC 080247
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Kay is still exhibiting a ragged-looking eye on enhanced infrared 
imagery, but the surrounding cloud tops have been warming 
significantly.  The overall cloud pattern is becoming less 
organized with some elongation from south to north.  Upper-level 
outflow is restricted over the western portion of the circulation.  
Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing and the current intensity estimate 
is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory, which is a compromise between 
subjective Dvorak T and CI numbers.  The earlier Hurricane Hunter 
mission suggested that the satellite-estimated intensities were 
probably a little on the high side.

Although the vertical wind shear is not forecast to increase much 
during the next couple of days, SSTs beneath Kay will be steadily 
cooling along with a gradual drying of the mid-level air mass.  
These environmental factors should lead to continued weakening 
during the forecast period.  The official intensity forecast calls 
for a little faster rate of weakening than the previous NHC 
prediction, but is generally above the model guidance.  Kay should 
weaken even faster than shown here if the center tracks over a 
portion of the Baja California land mass.

The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, or at about 345/12 kt. 
A mid-level ridge to the east and northeast of the tropical 
cyclone is likely to maintain the north-northwestward track for 
a couple of days.  Thereafter, the weakening and increasingly 
shallow Kay is forecast to turn more westward, and eventually 
southward, away from land as it becomes steered by the flow on the 
south and east side of a low-level ridge over the northeastern 
Pacific.  The official track forecast is shifted slightly east and 
north of the previous NHC prediction and is very close to the 
latest corrected dynamical model consensus.

Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive
area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern
Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is likely to 
weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the 
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a
large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. As the center of Kay passes near or over the Baja California 
peninsula, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including 
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of 
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning.  Flash, 
urban, and small stream flooding is possible across Southern 
California, especially in and near the peninsular ranges, and 
Southwest Arizona, Friday night into Saturday.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night,
and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected
to spread northward during the next day or so, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 23.2N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 25.1N 113.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 27.5N 114.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 29.5N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 30.9N 117.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 31.6N 119.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 31.5N 119.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/0000Z 30.5N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0000Z 29.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch




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