Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Forecast Advisory


149 
WTPZ22 KNHC 060247
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
0300 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTHWARD FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.1N 109.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.3N 111.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.9N 112.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.7N 113.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.7N 114.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.6N 115.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 28.5N 116.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 120.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 108.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART





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