Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 082053
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
2100 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUERTO CORTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CORTES
* SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN
MAINLAND MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 114.3W AT 08/2100Z...ON COAST
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE  80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 420SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 114.3W AT 08/2100Z...ON COAST
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.7N 115.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.4N 116.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.3N 118.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.7N 119.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.7N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 28.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 114.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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