Pacific Hurricane Feed

Hurricane Kay Forecast Advisory



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 070855
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
0900 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM NORTH
OF PUNTA ABREOJOS NORTHWARD TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN
FELIPE...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE
* NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
COULD BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 112.0W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 160SE  80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 510SE 330SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 112.0W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 111.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.7N 113.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.9N 115.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.7N 116.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.8N 118.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 31.2N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.1N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 112.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Source link