Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 070242
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
0300 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO SANTA ROSALIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
* NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.7W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE  80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 330SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.7W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.6N 112.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.8N 115.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.5N 116.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 31.1N 120.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.8N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 111.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




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