Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Forecast Advisory


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HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
2100 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE WEST 
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA 
EUGENIA.  

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO 
PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST AND TO SANTA ROSALIA ON THE EAST 
COAST.  

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO 
SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES ON THE EAST COAST. 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO SANTA ROSALIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
* NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 111.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE  80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 480SE 330SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 111.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.8N 112.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.6N 113.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.6N 113.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.9N 114.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.8N 115.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.3N 117.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.7N 119.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.5N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 111.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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