Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 061445
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO SANTA ROSALIA
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 111.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.7N 112.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.4N 115.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.2N 118.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 110.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




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