Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT14 KNHC 280856
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
0900 UTC WED SEP 28 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120   
KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.                                           

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   X(13)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   X(12)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   1(14)   X(14)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   8(12)   2(14)   X(14)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)  15(26)   2(28)   X(28)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   8(18)  14(32)   1(33)   X(33)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   6( 6)   5(11)   3(14)  11(25)   1(26)   X(26)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

KINGS BAY GA   34  4   8(12)  24(36)   8(44)   7(51)   1(52)   X(52)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

WAYCROSS GA    34  3   6( 9)   8(17)   3(20)   2(22)   1(23)   X(23)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  4  11(15)  29(44)   8(52)   5(57)   X(57)   X(57)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   2( 2)  11(13)   4(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

JACKSONVILLE   34  4  11(15)  22(37)   4(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  6  31(37)  20(57)   1(58)   X(58)   1(59)   X(59)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  1   4( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  7  49(56)  24(80)   2(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  2   9(11)  32(43)   3(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   2( 2)  21(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

THE VILLAGES   34 24  54(78)  11(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
THE VILLAGES   50  3  17(20)  20(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

ORLANDO FL     34 43  45(88)   7(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
ORLANDO FL     50  4  38(42)  24(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
ORLANDO FL     64  X  13(13)  22(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 38  41(79)   9(88)   2(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  3  20(23)  26(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   5( 5)  23(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

PATRICK AFB    34 39  41(80)   9(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
PATRICK AFB    50  3  21(24)  26(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   5( 5)  24(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

FT PIERCE FL   34 54  27(81)   4(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
FT PIERCE FL   50  3  12(15)  13(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

W PALM BEACH   34 54  17(71)   3(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
W PALM BEACH   50  3   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FT LAUDERDALE  34 49  11(60)   2(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

MIAMI FL       34 32  20(52)   3(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
MIAMI FL       50  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

HOMESTEAD ARB  34 25  18(43)   2(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
HOMESTEAD ARB  50  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MARATHON FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MARATHON FL    50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

KEY WEST FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KEY WEST FL    50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NAPLES FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NAPLES FL      50 93   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
NAPLES FL      64 29   3(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)

FT MYERS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT MYERS FL    50 95   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
FT MYERS FL    64 55  12(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)

VENICE FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      50 94   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
VENICE FL      64 67  16(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)

TAMPA FL       34 94   4(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TAMPA FL       50 28  38(66)   3(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
TAMPA FL       64  4  20(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

CEDAR KEY FL   34 26  31(57)   8(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  3   4( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  3   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

ST MARKS FL    34  3   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)

APALACHICOLA   34  4   5( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  6   6(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   1(15)   X(15)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

DESTIN EXEC AP 34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  5   9(14)  11(25)   1(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

ANDROS         34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HAVANA         34  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



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