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PWSAT4
HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0900 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120
KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 15(26) 2(28) X(28)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 8(18) 14(32) 1(33) X(33)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KINGS BAY GA 34 4 8(12) 24(36) 8(44) 7(51) 1(52) X(52)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WAYCROSS GA 34 3 6( 9) 8(17) 3(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 4 11(15) 29(44) 8(52) 5(57) X(57) X(57)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
JACKSONVILLE 34 4 11(15) 22(37) 4(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 6 31(37) 20(57) 1(58) X(58) 1(59) X(59)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 1 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 7 49(56) 24(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 2 9(11) 32(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
THE VILLAGES 34 24 54(78) 11(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
THE VILLAGES 50 3 17(20) 20(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
THE VILLAGES 64 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ORLANDO FL 34 43 45(88) 7(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
ORLANDO FL 50 4 38(42) 24(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
ORLANDO FL 64 X 13(13) 22(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 38 41(79) 9(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 3 20(23) 26(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 5( 5) 23(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
PATRICK AFB 34 39 41(80) 9(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
PATRICK AFB 50 3 21(24) 26(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
PATRICK AFB 64 X 5( 5) 24(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
FT PIERCE FL 34 54 27(81) 4(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
FT PIERCE FL 50 3 12(15) 13(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
W PALM BEACH 34 54 17(71) 3(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
W PALM BEACH 50 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
W PALM BEACH 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 49 11(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MIAMI FL 34 32 20(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
MIAMI FL 50 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 25 18(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MARATHON FL 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KEY WEST FL 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NAPLES FL 50 93 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
NAPLES FL 64 29 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT MYERS FL 50 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
FT MYERS FL 64 55 12(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VENICE FL 50 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
VENICE FL 64 67 16(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
TAMPA FL 34 94 4(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TAMPA FL 50 28 38(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
TAMPA FL 64 4 20(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 26 31(57) 8(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 3 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
ST MARKS FL 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13)
APALACHICOLA 34 4 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 6 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 5 9(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ANDROS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HAVANA 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN