Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FONT14 KNHC 280309
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
0300 UTC WED SEP 28 2022                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105   
KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                           

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)   X(12)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)  14(20)   2(22)   X(22)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)  14(24)   2(26)   X(26)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   9(19)   1(20)   X(20)

KINGS BAY GA   34  2   9(11)  13(24)   4(28)  12(40)   X(40)   X(40)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

WAYCROSS GA    34  1   6( 7)   6(13)   2(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  3  10(13)  18(31)   5(36)  11(47)   X(47)   X(47)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

JACKSONVILLE   34  3   9(12)  15(27)   3(30)   4(34)   X(34)   X(34)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  4  26(30)  20(50)   2(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  4  46(50)  24(74)   3(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   9( 9)  21(30)   4(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

THE VILLAGES   34  5  62(67)  15(82)   1(83)   X(83)   1(84)   X(84)
THE VILLAGES   50  1  15(16)  19(35)   3(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

ORLANDO FL     34  7  73(80)  12(92)   2(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
ORLANDO FL     50  2  35(37)  26(63)   2(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
ORLANDO FL     64  X  14(14)  22(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 10  67(77)  11(88)   2(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  2  27(29)  21(50)   2(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   8( 8)  16(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)

PATRICK AFB    34 10  67(77)  11(88)   2(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
PATRICK AFB    50  2  27(29)  22(51)   2(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   8( 8)  17(25)   X(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)

FT PIERCE FL   34 21  61(82)   6(88)   X(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)
FT PIERCE FL   50  3  26(29)  12(41)   X(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   6( 6)   8(14)   X(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)

W PALM BEACH   34 34  43(77)   3(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
W PALM BEACH   50  3  13(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

FT LAUDERDALE  34 44  29(73)   2(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  3   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MIAMI FL       34 30  34(64)   4(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
MIAMI FL       50  3   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
MIAMI FL       64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

HOMESTEAD ARB  34 30  30(60)   3(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
HOMESTEAD ARB  50  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
HOMESTEAD ARB  64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

MARATHON FL    34 87   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
MARATHON FL    50  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
MARATHON FL    64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

KEY WEST FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KEY WEST FL    50 16   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
KEY WEST FL    64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

NAPLES FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NAPLES FL      50 84  11(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
NAPLES FL      64 39  29(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)

FT MYERS FL    34 98   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT MYERS FL    50 62  34(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
FT MYERS FL    64 17  63(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)

VENICE FL      34 94   6(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      50 43  49(92)   X(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
VENICE FL      64  7  55(62)   2(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)

TAMPA FL       34 51  42(93)   2(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
TAMPA FL       50  4  53(57)   6(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
TAMPA FL       64  1  15(16)   9(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  5  40(45)  12(57)   1(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  1   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  2   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

ST MARKS FL    34  3   5( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

APALACHICOLA   34  3   5( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  4   6(10)   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  5  18(23)   7(30)   1(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   5( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

ANDROS         34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HAVANA         34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ISLE OF PINES  34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CIENFUEGOS     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



Source link