Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion


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WTNT44 KNHC 280420
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1230 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This Special Advisory has been released to issue a Storm Surge 
Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key to Key West. 
The storm surge inundation amounts for the area have been increased 
to 3 to 5 ft.

No other changes were made to the track or intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Florida west
coast and the Lower Florida Keys where a storm surge warning is 
in effect, with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. 
Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local 
officials and follow any evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected overnight.  Devastating wind
damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all
preparations to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast later this week and
this weekend.  Catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of
central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida,
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina.
Widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected
across central Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0430Z 25.0N  82.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 26.0N  82.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 27.2N  81.9W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1200Z 28.2N  81.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0000Z 29.3N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  30/1200Z 30.6N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 32.7N  81.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  02/0000Z 36.0N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg



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