Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT24 KNHC 261456
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FROM CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE IN THE MIDDLE 
KEYS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO
36 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES MAY BE NEED LATER TODAY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  82.7W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  82.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  82.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N  83.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.7N  84.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.5N  84.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.1N  83.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N  83.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N  83.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  50SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.8N  82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 32.8N  82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  82.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




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