Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Howard Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 092035
TCDEP4

Hurricane Howard Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Deep convection associated with Howard has decreased in intensity 
and become less organized today while the cyclone moves over cooler 
waters.  Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have been lowered 
from earlier today, and the objective Dvorak intensity estimate 
from UW-CIMSS is below hurricane strength.  Based on these values, 
the advisory intensity is reduced to 65 kt.

Although the vertical wind shear is not forecast to increase, Howard 
will continue to pass over cooler ocean waters during the next 
couple of days.  Moreover, model analyses and the presence of a 
field of stratocumulus clouds just to the west of the cyclone 
indicate that the system should soon be encountering a more stable 
air mass.  Therefore, continued steady weakening is forecast, and 
the official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the model 
consensus.  Howard should make the transition into a post tropical 
cyclone in 48 hours, or less.

Howard remains on a west-northwestward track, and continues moving 
at around 300/9 kt.  The track forecast philosophy is essentially 
unchanged from the previous few advisories.  A mid-level ridge 
extending westward from a high pressure system over the southwestern 
United States should keep the system on a west-northwestward course 
for the next day or two.  Late in the forecast period, weak 
post-tropical Howard should turn westward following the near-surface 
winds.  The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the 
previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 22.5N 117.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 23.1N 119.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 23.8N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 24.3N 122.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 24.7N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0600Z 24.9N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z 24.9N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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