Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Howard Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090237
TCDEP4

Hurricane Howard Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 08 2022

Howard's structure has evolved over the past several hours.
Although the overall amount of deep convection has decreased,
thunderstorm activity in the eyewall appears better organized and
more symmetric during the past few hours. Water vapor images show a
pronounced dry slot channeling into the system's east side, which is
likely the reason why the rainbands have become less convective.
Despite the structural change, the Dvorak classifications have
remained steady at 4.0/65 kt and 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. Based on that data, the initial intensity is held at
70 kt.

Howard is just about out of time to strengthen any further. The 
hurricane is approaching the 26 degree C SST isotherm and dry air is 
already entraining into the circulation. These factors should cause 
a weakening trend to begin on Tuesday, and Howard will likely become 
a remnant low in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is a 
little lower than the previous one and near the IVCN and HCCA 
consensus models.

Over the past 12 hours, Howard has been moving to the northwest
at 10 kt. A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during
the next couple of days as the system moves on the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over the south-central
and southwestern United States. A turn to the west within the 
low-level flow is forecast in a few days when Howard is expected to 
be a weak and shallow system. The NHC track forecast is similar to 
the previous one and near the model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 21.2N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 22.0N 116.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 22.9N 118.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 23.6N 120.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 24.2N 121.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 24.6N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  12/0000Z 24.8N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Source link