Hurricane Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 220231
PWSEP2

HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072024               
0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2024                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                        

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 125W       34 34   6(40)   2(42)   2(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
15N 125W       50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 125W       34  2   4( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)

15N 130W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)  10(15)   8(23)   2(25)   X(25)

20N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  15(20)  26(46)   2(48)   X(48)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   1(13)

20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  39(54)   3(57)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   3(22)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)

15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  36(43)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY