Hurricane Gilma Forecast Advisory

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210846
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072024
0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 122.3W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 120SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 122.3W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.1N 123.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 110SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N 124.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.9N 125.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.2N 126.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.5N 128.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.7N 129.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.3N 132.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.1N 136.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH