Hurricane Gilma Forecast Advisory

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 211440
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072024
1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 122.8W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 120SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 122.8W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.2N 123.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 124.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.8N 125.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.9N 127.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.1N 128.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.3N 130.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 122.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/ALAKA