Atlantic Hurricane Feed

Hurricane Francine Public Advisory

Published Date and Time: 2024-09-11 19:44:33



000
WTNT31 KNHC 112344
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024
700 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY 
RAINS CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 90.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to
Grand Isle

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Louisiana coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
beginning shortly for the indicated locations.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was 
located inland near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 90.9 West. 
Francine is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This 
general motion should continue, taking the system across 
southeastern Louisiana tonight and across Mississippi Thursday 
and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Rapid weakening is expected, and the system is forecast 
to become post-tropical Thursday night or Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the 
hurricane warning area, with tropical storm conditions spreading 
inland. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch 
area tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama tonight.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash, urban and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.  For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees.  However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. On Thursday, the tornado risk
will move into additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle.

SURF:  Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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