Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Wind Speed Probabilities


990 
FOPZ11 KNHC 182034
PWSEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022               
2100 UTC MON JUL 18 2022                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ISLA SOCORRO   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ISLA CLARION   34 90   9(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLA CLARION   50 35  45(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
ISLA CLARION   64  2  33(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)

15N 115W       34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

20N 115W       34 23  39(62)   2(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
20N 115W       50  1   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

20N 120W       34  X   5( 5)  43(48)  30(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)  10(10)  30(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)

25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI                                              




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