Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 180831
PWSEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022               
0900 UTC MON JUL 18 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 110W       34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

20N 110W       34  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ISLA SOCORRO   34 88   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
ISLA SOCORRO   50 17   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

ISLA CLARION   34  2  70(72)  23(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
ISLA CLARION   50  X  20(20)  50(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   4( 4)  33(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

15N 115W       34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

20N 115W       34  2  25(27)  40(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
20N 115W       50  X   1( 1)  15(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  39(44)  30(74)   X(74)   X(74)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  27(36)   X(36)   X(36)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)

25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               



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