Pacific Hurricane Feed

Hurricane Estelle Wind Speed Probabilities



000
FOPZ11 KNHC 172034
PWSEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022               
2100 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 110W       34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

20N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  1  22(23)   3(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)  69(71)  19(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)  27(27)  34(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   9( 9)  26(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)

15N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

20N 115W       34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  21(33)   3(36)   X(36)   X(36)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  66(71)   2(73)   X(73)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)   1(38)   X(38)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   X(17)   X(17)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   1(20)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)

20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI                                              



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