Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 171435
PWSEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022               
1500 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 110W       34  1   9(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

20N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X  15(15)  12(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)  36(37)  51(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  50(55)   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  29(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)

15N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)

20N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  28(32)   6(38)   X(38)   X(38)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  65(68)   5(73)   1(74)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  33(33)   5(38)   X(38)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   3(17)   X(17)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)   3(29)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)

20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



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