Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 182036
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Since this morning, the central features of Estelle have become 
more ragged in appearance.  An earlier SSMIS microwave pass from 
1415 UTC showed a tilted vortex structure, suggesting the vertical 
wind shear is preventing the hurricane from strengthening.  The 
objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have changed 
little and the initial intensity remains at 70 kt.

Model guidance indicates Estelle only has a brief period to 
intensify before moving over sea surface temperatures cooler than 25 
C.  However, moderate north-northwesterly wind shear is likely to 
persist through tonight and inhibit significant strengthening.  A 
steady weakening trend is expected to begin in a day or so and 
Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within a few 
days.  The NHC intensity forecast is just slightly above the latest 
consensus model guidance.

Estelle continues to move west-northwest at 12 kt.  A mid-level 
ridge associated with a strong high pressure system over the 
southwestern United States should provide the main steering for the 
next few days.  As the cyclone degenerates into a post-tropical 
cyclone/remnant low, it should follow the low-level winds and turn 
more westward.  The official forecast is very close to the latest 
corrected model consensus, HCCA. 

Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 18.2N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 18.5N 114.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 19.1N 116.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 19.9N 118.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 20.8N 121.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 21.8N 123.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 22.6N 125.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  22/1800Z 23.4N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci



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