Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170832
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

After strengthening during the late afternoon and evening hours,
Estelle's intensity appears to have leveled off some overnight.
The system is maintaining a central dense overcast feature and 
outer curved bands. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and 
CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 65 to 77 kt, and 
the initial intensity is held at 70 kt based on that data.

Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt on the south side of a
mid-level ridge that is centered over the southwestern U.S. A 
slightly faster motion to the west-northwest is expected during the 
next several days as the ridge builds westward over the eastern 
Pacific. The models are in good agreement, and the new forecast is 
only a little faster than the previous one.

The hurricane is expected to remain in favorable conditions for
another day or so, therefore, steady to possibly rapid
intensification is possible during that time period. However, an
increase in northeasterly shear should cause the strengthening
trend to end in 36 to 48 hours, followed by weakening when Estelle
moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier airmass.
The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one
and remains at the high end of the model guidance, closest to the
SHIPS model.

The main impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf and the 
potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern and 
west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 15.1N 105.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 15.7N 107.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 16.4N 109.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 17.0N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  19/1800Z 18.1N 116.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 19.0N 118.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 21.1N 123.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  22/0600Z 22.5N 127.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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