Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Forecast Advisory


855 
WTPZ21 KNHC 170236
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
0300 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.0W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.0W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.6N 110.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 112.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 115.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 117.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 122.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 126.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 105.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





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