Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 182033
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
2100 UTC MON JUL 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 114.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.1N 116.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 121.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.8N 123.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.6N 125.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.4N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI




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