Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Forecast Advisory


787 
WTPZ21 KNHC 181442
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.2N 122.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 123.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.2N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI





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