Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Forecast Advisory


132 
WTPZ21 KNHC 180831
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
0900 UTC MON JUL 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 109.8W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 109.8W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.1N 111.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 113.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 116.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 120.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.8N 122.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.1N 126.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.7N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





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