Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180236
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
0300 UTC MON JUL 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 108.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.2N 110.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.7N 112.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.1N 114.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.9N 117.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.8N 119.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 121.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 125.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




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