Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 171435
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
1500 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.3N 108.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 110.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.4N 113.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.8N 118.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.8N 120.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 124.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 128.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI




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