Hurricane Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FONT15 KNHC 170855
PWSAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024               
0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)  24(55)   X(55)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   X(16)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  61(61)   1(62)   X(62)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   1(26)   X(26)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  39(39)   X(39)   X(39)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)

PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  36(49)   X(49)   X(49)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   X(17)   X(17)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BERMUDA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BERMUDA        50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BERMUDA        64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE