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HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 2(40)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 1(52)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) X(44)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) X(22)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 16(53) X(53)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) X(25)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 34 80 19(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BERMUDA 50 15 73(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
BERMUDA 64 2 60(62) 4(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities
16
Aug