Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT25 KNHC 150854
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  69.1W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  60SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  69.1W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N  69.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.4N  69.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.4N  68.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.3N  66.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.1N  65.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  55SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.6N  65.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.3N  65.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 39.7N  62.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N  52.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  90SE  70SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW  70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N  69.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE