Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Earl Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT11 KNHC 091434
PWSAT1

HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS
...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   9( 9)  11(20)  10(30)   5(35)   1(36)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)  16(16)  12(28)   4(32)   1(33)   X(33)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY                                              



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