Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Earl Forecast Advisory


050 
WTNT21 KNHC 081455
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  65.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
EYE DIAMETER  50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  65.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  65.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.7N  64.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  55SE  35SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.5N  61.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 37.0N  57.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  80NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 40.9N  53.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 280SE 230SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 43.6N  49.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 290SE 260SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 44.9N  48.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 220SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 46.1N  46.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 47.1N  40.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N  65.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN





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