Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Earl Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT21 KNHC 072058
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
2100 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
ISLAND OF BERMUDA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT SOME POINT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  65.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  65.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  65.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.8N  65.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.7N  64.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.0N  62.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 35.0N  59.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  75SE  55SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 190SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 38.6N  55.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 130SE  90SW  80NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 230SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.8N  50.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 230SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 45.0N  46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 47.0N  41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N  65.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




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