Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Earl Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT21 KNHC 101434
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.9N  53.0W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT  25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  80SE  50SW  30NW.
50 KT.......110NE 180SE 110SW 180NW.
34 KT.......300NE 360SE 350SW 320NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 570SE 630SW 430NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.9N  53.0W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.4N  53.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.4N  51.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW 180NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 45.0N  51.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 45.2N  50.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 250SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 45.4N  50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 45.3N  48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  60SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.3N  45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE 100SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 45.5N  40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 46.5N  37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.9N  53.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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