Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Dora Wind Speed Probabilities



000
FOPA12 PHFO 080837
PWSCP2

HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32                  
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052023         
0900 UTC TUE AUG 08 2023                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115  
KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                           

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

10N 160W       34  1  19(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

15N 160W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

10N 165W       34  X   1( 1)  23(24)   4(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
10N 165W       50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
10N 165W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

15N 165W       34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

JOHNSTON ISL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)

10N 170W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   X(15)   X(15)

15N 170W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  29(43)   X(43)   X(43)
15N 170W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)
15N 170W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

10N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

15N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  82(82)   4(86)   X(86)
15N 175W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  52(52)   4(56)   X(56)
15N 175W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)   5(36)   X(36)

20N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER JELSEMA                                                  



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