Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Dora Wind Speed Probabilities



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FOPA12 PHFO 090833
PWSCP2

HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36                  
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052023         
0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2023                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 162.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115  
KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                           

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

10N 165W       34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

JOHNSTON ISL   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

10N 170W       34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

15N 170W       34  X   3( 3)  15(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

10N 175W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

15N 175W       34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  73(81)   3(84)   X(84)   X(84)
15N 175W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  41(42)   3(45)   X(45)   X(45)
15N 175W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER M BALLARD/JELSEMA                                        



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