Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion

WTPA42 PHFO 072040

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP052023
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 07 2023

Dora remains far to the southeast of Hawaii this morning. Its 
westward track will have it pass far south of Hawaii, posing no 
direct threat to the islands. Satellite presentation shows 
that Dora has undergone some minor changes in the last several 
hours, but remains a compact and symmetric hurricane. The 
subjective Dvorak estimates from PHFO, SAT and JTWC all came in at 
6.0, and the objective estimates ranged from 110 to 120 kt. These 
estimates, combined with a 1644Z SSMI pass showing a closed eye 
wall, supports our initial intensity of 115 kt.

The model track guidance remains tightly clustered, particularly 
through day 4, continuing high confidence in Dora's expected path. 
The forecast track makes little change from the previous advisory 
during this time. Beyond day 4, the forecast track  has been nudged 
a bit south to bring the track closer to the latest guidance. The 
forecast track maintains a westward movement for the next several 
days, before gaining latitude and then crossing the dateline 
between days 4 and 5. 

Minor fluctuations in intensity are still expected with Dora for 
the next 36 hours or so, with Dora's environment remaining largely 
unchanged. Dora is currently over 27 C waters, but is expected to 
move over slightly warmer waters (28-29 C) around day 3. Shear in 
the immediate area remains negligible in the short term, but on the 
projected path, shows signs of increasing around day 4. The bigger 
question relates to the amount of dry air that will be ingested into 
Dora. At the moment, Dora sits just south of a very dry air mass. 
The deterministic GFS and ECMWF models suggest mid level drier air 
will be ingested into the system in the coming days, and will 
likely contribute to the gradual weakening of Dora.


INIT  07/2100Z 12.3N 150.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 12.0N 153.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 12.0N 156.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 12.1N 160.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 12.5N 164.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 13.0N 167.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 13.7N 171.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 15.6N 178.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 17.5N 175.5E   70 KT  80 MPH

Forecaster Birchard/M Ballard

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