Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion

WTPA42 PHFO 100851

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP052023
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 09 2023

Infrared satellite this evening shows the eye of Hurricane Dora has 
filled in since this afternoon. The annular structure has broken 
down with a banding feature setting up along the northeast 
periphery. Dvorak intensity estimates indicate a DT of 5.5 with a CI 
of 6.5, a decrease from earlier this afternoon and ADT and AiDT 
show 5.7/122 kt and 111 kt respectively. With a slight weakening off 
the peak intensity earlier today, Dora is given an initial intensity 
of 120 kt for this advisory, keeping it as a solid category 4 
tropical cyclone.

Initial motion with this advisory is 275/19 kt, unchanged from the
last three advisories. The track guidance remains remarkably tight 
through the next 48 hours becoming spread out after this point, 
particularly after 96 hours. Models indicate a slight decrease in 
forward motion from previous forecasts, and the updated official 
forecast has been nudged toward the model consensus TVCE. The 
larger synoptic  environment around Dora remains unchanged. Strong 
ridging north of Dora, and the westward migration of this ridging, 
accounts for this system's prolonged westward movement. However, the 
slow and recent increase in latitude indicates that Dora is reaching 
the southwest flank of this ridging. Dora is forecast to continue 
gaining latitude and assume a northwest motion Thursday and Friday, 
becoming more northerly after Dora passes west of the date line 
late in the day Friday into the weekend.

Warm water, with temperatures of 28 degrees C or above, lies along
the entire forecast track and shear will remain less than 20 kt
through tau 48. The 06Z GFS and ECMWF SHIPS shows a slight 
weakening in intensity over the next 48 hours, then a more dramatic 
decrease after 60 hours as Dora gains latitude and shear increases. 
The updated forecast closely follows this guidance.


INIT  10/0900Z 12.1N 169.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 12.6N 172.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 13.7N 175.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 14.9N 178.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 16.1N 178.2E  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  12/1800Z 16.9N 175.5E   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 17.4N 173.1E   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 18.3N 168.3E   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 20.0N 164.0E   35 KT  40 MPH

Forecaster Foster/Birchard

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