Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Darby Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPA11 PHFO 150239
PWSCP1

HURRICANE DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23                 
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052022         
0300 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 150W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 150W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

20N 151W       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BUOY 51004     34  X   1( 1)  39(40)  16(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
BUOY 51004     50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
BUOY 51004     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 155W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)
18N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER M BALLARD/R BALLARD                                      



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