Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Darby Wind Speed Probabilities


269 
FOPZ15 KNHC 131434
PWSEP5

HURRICANE DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052022               
1500 UTC WED JUL 13 2022                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 135W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 135W       50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 135W       64 41   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)

15N 140W       34  1  50(51)   3(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
15N 140W       50  X  13(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
15N 140W       64  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

20N 140W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 145W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  14(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
15N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY                                              



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